Hezbollah’s Strategic Assessments 90 Days into War with Israel

During the 90-day war, Hezbollah preferred small daily attacks, rather than escalating to a larger war. The presence of a US aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean may have deterred them. Now that the aircraft carrier is leaving, Hezbollah feels more confident but faces a dilemma. Its significant power and influence in Lebanon make it too valuable for Iran to sacrifice in a war against Israel. While Hezbollah has caused considerable damage to Israel, it has also suffered losses. Its recent activities indicate a shift in the tempo of the conflict, as Israel transitions operations in Gaza and focuses more on the northern border.

The ‘small work’ of firing rockets

Hezbollah’s role was overshadowed by Hamas’ attack on Israel, prompting Hezbollah to engage in “small work” such as firing rockets and other small-scale attacks. However, this tactic does not lead to victory. Israel’s defense establishment is now focused on securing the return of displaced northern communities. Hezbollah must now consider its next moves, as the circumstances of the conflict change.

IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi gives a statement to the media at an army base in southern Israel, December 26, 2023. (credit: FLASH90)

Hezbollah’s past actions have allowed it to dictate the tempo of the conflict and create provocations, but its influence may be waning. The terrorist organization has a lot to lose in Lebanon and faces challenges in maintaining its assets. It may attempt to manipulate the media by signaling willingness to withdraw or making false claims about its elite units.

Making its own decisions

Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran, must now reassess their strategies and consider the repercussions of their actions. As Iran seeks to expand its influence and threaten Israel through various channels, it also exposes itself to potential setbacks and losses. The power dynamics in the region are shifting, and Hezbollah’s role may become increasingly uncertain.

In conclusion, Hezbollah’s approach to the conflict and its relationship with Iran are facing new challenges. The organization must adjust to the changing dynamics in the region and carefully consider its next steps. The war has entered a new phase, and Hezbollah’s future role is uncertain.