The United States and allies have few options left to control Iran’s nuclear program. Prospects for talks are slim, and taking tougher actions against Tehran could further fuel tensions in an already volatile region due to the Gaza war. With a U.S. election next year, Washington’s flexibility is limited. Current and former diplomats paint a grim picture of efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program, which continues to advance according to U.N. reports. Despite this, there is paralysis and reluctance to add fuel to the fire. President Biden cannot consider informal understandings with Iran due to the ongoing regional conflict and escalating tensions. Negotiations would have required concessions from the U.S., but in the current environment, accommodation with Iran is politically infeasible. Washington has deployed military assets to the region as a deterrent to Tehran but does not seek escalation. Instead, the focus is on an upcoming meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors to address Iran’s nuclear progress and lack of cooperation with the monitoring of its work. Efforts to pass a resolution ordering Iran to reverse course are unlikely due to the risk of pushing Iran to further nuclear enrichment. Instead, a non-binding statement threatening tougher action at the next board meeting is more probable. It is too early to determine whether Iran will become a nuclear state, but for now, it will continue enriching uranium.