The Escalating Conflict: Iran’s Potential Moves Against Israel and the US in the Middle East

Iran is trying to manage the conflict against Israel. Iran seeks to bring the war to Israel’s borders but not escalate into a massive conflict. The killing of IRGC officer Razi Mousavi has led Iran’s regime into a state of fury and mourning. Iran pushes its pawns and proxies closer to Israel’s borders, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, and militias in Syria. Dozens of attacks on ships in the Red Sea, more than 110 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, and hundreds of attacks by Hezbollah have occurred. Iran is trying to reverse the “campaign between the wars” in which Israel was seeking to end Iranian entrenchment in Syria. Israel’s Defense Minister said that Israel was facing a multi-front conflict, and international media are now focused on the escalating and widening conflict. US airstrikes on Kataib Hezbollah after an attack in Iraq are part of the same pattern. Iran has been escalating since October 7, and all of these attacks are linked to Iran. Iran is managing these attacks, using different proxy groups. It remains to be seen if the conflict will continue to escalate on multiple fronts. Iran’s history of using proxies and managing conflicts shows it doesn’t prefer huge conflagration, as it doesn’t want to sacrifice the proxies and the proxies don’t have endless resources or armories.