The Future of the Middle East: A Look Ahead to 2024

As the year 2023 comes to an end, experts agree that the Israel-Gaza war was the most significant event in the Middle East. Geopolitical and economic changes, as well as environmental developments, have all played a part in shaping the region last year. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, triggered by Hamas’s incursion, has had a profound impact on the region. The full consequences are yet to be seen, but it has set the stage for various states to capitalize on or exacerbate the instability. In particular, Iran’s role has been significant in this context. The conflict has also affected the global economy, prompting concerns about maritime chokepoints and vulnerabilities to attacks. Additionally, a surprising Saudi-Iran rapprochement deal and China’s role as a mediator in the agreement have shifted the balance of influence in the region, reflecting broader changes in geopolitical dynamics. Experts predict that the Israel-Hamas conflict will continue to shape regional dynamics in 2024, with increased insecurity and a potential spread across the Middle East. The increasing willingness of groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah to engage in the conflict underscores the importance of Iran’s strategic goals and the use of proxies to undermine regional security. However, the region is also expected to see increased cooperation between Gulf states and Asian powers, as well as advancements in the technological sector and the energy trade. Additionally, the upcoming presidential elections in Tunisia and the expansion of BRICS in the region will also have a significant impact on regional dynamics.